Muito jogo pela frente

07 Feb 2018

The state of the race

Well. Finally got around to putting this website together to chronicle what promises to be a crazy year. Anyone who tells you that they know how the 2018 presidential election in Brazil is going to turn out is...probably lying.*

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What you're looking at above is the distribution of polling percentages by candidate (interactive version here). With help from my awesome RA Paula Barcelos, I compiled the microdata from all major polling firms (Datafolha, Ibope, Paraná Pesquisas, Poder360, CNT+MDA, and Vox Populi). The date range spans July 2015 to January 2018 (to be updated continuously this year).

Note that each point represents a poll question. In some scenarios, the polling company asked for the respondent's spontaneous answer; in others, they forced a close-ended response so that they could dictate scenarios to capture uncertainty surrounding Lula's eligibility. There is also heterogeneity with respect to geography. Confused about things like that Jaques Wagner outlier at just over 20%? Yeah, that was a state-level poll from August 2015 in his home state of Bahia, conducted just after he left the governorship to become Dilma's Defense Minister in the twilight of her administration. And Doria at 48%? That was a Paraná Pesquisas poll (albeit at the national level) in September of 2017, right around the time his fame crested.

Caveats aside, one obvious takeaway from the length and overlap of those whisker plots: ainda tem muito jogo pela frente.

*I have not actually heard anybody say they'd botar mão no fogo with even a weak prediction at this point.